Panama’s Silent Seas: How Climate Change Stopped a 40-Year Ocean Rhythm
For more than four decades, the Pacific waters off Panama have danced to a dependable rhythm. Each winter, powerful trade winds sweep across the Gulf of Panama, stirring the ocean and drawing up cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep. This natural upwelling has long been the lifeblood of one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the tropics — fueling plankton blooms, feeding fish populations, and supporting coral reefs.
But in 2025, that rhythm broke.
Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute have confirmed that the annual upwelling simply never arrived — an unprecedented event in over 40 years of observation. Without those cold, nutrient-laden waters, Panama’s Pacific coast experienced a silent ocean season, leaving scientists and fishermen alike alarmed.
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A Breakdown in Nature’s Ocean Engine
Upwelling is one of the ocean’s most critical natural processes. It brings nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus from deep waters to the surface, feeding microscopic plankton — the foundation of marine food webs. From there, life flourishes: plankton feed small fish, which feed larger fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.
However, in early 2025, researchers noticed something strange. Despite the usual time for upwelling, the trade winds stayed weak. The sea remained unusually warm and calm, and plankton blooms never appeared. The entire system — from microscopic life to large fish populations — slowed down dramatically.
According to the study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), this sudden failure of upwelling was linked to climate-driven changes in wind patterns. Weaker trade winds, likely influenced by broader global warming trends and oceanic oscillations, disrupted the conditions needed to lift deep water to the surface.
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Ripple Effects Across the Ecosystem
The consequences of this breakdown were swift and far-reaching. Without the regular influx of nutrients, phytoplankton populations plummeted, robbing the food web of its base. Coastal fisheries — especially those reliant on sardines and anchovies — reported significant declines in catch.
Coral reefs, already under stress from warming waters, faced even greater risks. Without cool upwelling to moderate sea temperatures, corals were exposed to sustained heat stress, raising the threat of bleaching events that could devastate reefs.
Local communities also felt the impact. Fishermen described “empty nets” and unusually still seas, while scientists warned that such disruptions, if repeated, could permanently alter Panama’s coastal ecosystems.
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A Global Warning
Panama’s upwelling failure is not just a local crisis — it may be a preview of global ocean instability. Many of the world’s most important fisheries, from Peru to California to West Africa, depend on similar upwelling systems. If climate change continues to weaken trade winds or shift ocean circulation, these regions could face the same collapse Panama just experienced.
Dr. Rachel Collin, a marine biologist at the Smithsonian, noted, “This isn’t just about Panama. What we’re seeing is a warning that climate change can disrupt the timing and mechanics of ocean systems we thought were stable.”
Scientists emphasize that the event highlights an often-overlooked effect of global warming — not just rising temperatures, but the disruption of natural cycles that sustain marine life. The loss of upwelling means fewer nutrients, less productivity, and, ultimately, less life in the ocean.
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The Road Ahead
Researchers are now monitoring whether Panama’s upwelling will return in 2026 or if this marks the beginning of a longer-term shift. Satellite data, ocean temperature records, and wind patterns will be closely analyzed to determine if the failure was a rare anomaly or the start of a new normal.
For now, the silence in Panama’s Pacific waters stands as a stark reminder of how quickly the balance of nature can be disturbed. The collapse of a cycle that had endured for centuries underscores one urgent truth: the ocean’s rhythms are changing and so must we.
Source: “Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), September 2, 2025.