Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has reiterated his confidence that the company’s fully reusable rocket system, Starship, will land humans on Mars — and that the goal is far larger than just a few people touching down on the Red Planet. According to Musk, what matters is establishing a self-sustaining colony that can thrive even if supplies from Earth stop.
In a post on X, Musk laid out the massive scale of the ambition: he said “over 100,000 people and 1 million tons of cargo” will be required to build a colony on Mars capable of long-term survival. He emphasized that “the critical threshold to pass is making it such that Mars can grow even if supply ships from Earth stop coming for any reason.”
Why this matters
Architecting a colony on another planet is not simply about the first boots on the ground. Musk argues that without a large human population and substantial cargo shipments, Mars would remain dependent on Earth rather than becoming independent. The cargo—ranging from habitats, life-support systems, energy and water infrastructure, to agricultural modules—would lay the foundation. The people would build, maintain and expand the settlement. This shift, from exploration to civilization, is what Musk calls “securing the future of consciousness.”
Timeline and cost details
SpaceX has recently updated its publicly-available mission timeline, indicating that cargo missions to the Moon could begin in 2028 and Mars missions could follow by 2030. On its website, the company also puts the cost of sending payload via Starship at roughly US $100 million per metric ton.
In parallel, Musk has shared updates about upcoming versions of Starship — namely V3 and V4 — promising larger sizes and enhanced payload capacities. He indicated that launch tests for V3 are anticipated by the end of this year, moving the program closer to operational reality.
The risks and the scale
The scale Musk is proposing is enormous. Moving over one million tons of cargo and more than 100,000 people to Mars is unprecedented in human history. And the timeline, while defined, is ambitious: the 2028-2030 window assumes technology such as in-orbit refuelling, reusable spacecraft, efficient life-support, and Mars surface infrastructure all come together. The company’s earlier documentation even suggested the vision of “one million people” on Mars eventually.
While Musk’s vision garners excitement, many experts note there are significant engineering, biological, and logistical challenges ahead. Surviving in the harsh Martian environment will require reliable systems, local resource utilisation (for water, fuel, air), and a settlement design that supports humans day to day. To be independent, the colony must be able to produce its own food, generate its own power and repair its own infrastructure.
What to watch next
Starship V3/V4 tests: Milestones ahead will show how quickly Starship can scale in size, reliability and frequency of launches.
Launch cost and payload capacity: As the cost per metric ton is crucial to shipping masses of cargo, reductions or stability in this number would be key to the Mars vision’s feasibility.
Mars window developments: Every ~26 months, Earth-Mars transfer windows open; the 2030 target suggests the next windows are central to schedule.
Mars surface infrastructure demonstrations: Before large-scale colonisation, proof of habitat, energy systems, and resource-utilisation will be essential.
Elon Musk’s latest statement moves the narrative of Mars from “first explorers footsteps” to “building a self-sustaining civilisation.” For Musk and SpaceX, the question is no longer only getting there, but rather thriving there. Their plan: tens of thousands of people, millions of tons of cargo and a Mars that can flourish without Earth-bound lifelines. If achieved, it would mark one of the greatest technological and human-civilisational leaps in history.