Physicists from the University of Massachusetts Amherst have made a bold prediction that could transform our understanding of the universe. According to their new study, there is up to a 90% chance that a primordial black hole (PBH) explosion could be observed within the next decade. If true, it would be one of the most groundbreaking scientific discoveries in modern history.
What Are Primordial Black Holes?
Most people are familiar with black holes that form when massive stars collapse under their own gravity. But primordial black holes are different. These objects are believed to have formed a fraction of a second after the Big Bang, in the extreme conditions of the early universe.
While stellar black holes can be many times the mass of our Sun, primordial black holes could be much smaller some as tiny as an atom but with the mass of a mountain. Over billions of years, these miniature black holes have been slowly evaporating, and some scientists believe they may now be reaching the explosive final stage of their lives.
Hawking Radiation: A 50-Year Mystery
Back in the 1970s, physicist Stephen Hawking proposed that black holes are not completely “black.” Instead, they slowly emit particles in a process now called Hawking radiation. If this theory is correct, a black hole would eventually shrink and explode in a final burst of energy.
For decades, scientists have searched for signs of this phenomenon but with no success. Observing a PBH explosion would be the first direct proof of Hawking’s theory and a once-in-a lifetime moment for science.
Why UMass Researchers Think It Could Happen Soon
The UMass Amherst team led by Matthew J. Baker, Juan J. Iguaz, Alice Symons, and Andrea Thamm re-examined long-standing assumptions about PBHs. They suggested that these black holes might carry a tiny “dark electric charge” that allows them to survive longer than previously thought. Eventually, however, this stabilizing effect fades, leading to a sudden and powerful explosion.
Previous estimates suggested PBH explosions were so rare that we might only see one every 100,000 years. But the new calculations drastically change that picture, raising the odds to as high as 90% within the next 10 years.
What Would We See If One Explodes?
If a primordial black hole explodes, astronomers expect it would release an enormous burst of energy, visible across multiple observatories. Gamma-ray telescopes, neutrino detectors, and cosmic ray experiments could all capture the signal.
But the real excitement comes from what the explosion might reveal. Scientists believe such an event could act like a cosmic catalog, releasing a flood of particles both known and unknown. This includes potential candidates for dark matter, the mysterious substance that makes up most of the universe’s mass but remains invisible to our instruments.
If a PBH explosion is observed, it would confirm Hawking’s prediction from half a century ago, rewrite our understanding of the early universe, and possibly unlock the mystery of dark matter. It would not just be another scientific discovery it could open an entirely new chapter in physics.
The UMass researchers emphasize that we should be prepared. With the growing power of today’s observatories, the chance to witness a primordial black hole’s final moments has never been greater.
As the team put it in their paper: “We should be ready.”
Research Reference:
Baker, M. J., Iguaz Juan, J., Symons, A., & Thamm, A. (2025). Could We Observe an Exploding Black Hole in the Near Future? Physical Review Letters.